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This Month's HeadlinesClick on any Headline to go to the full story. From Jim and CharlieThis is our personal note welcoming you to the April 2005 issue of Future of Work Agenda and setting our theme for the month. This issue is mostly about the upcoming World Congress on the Future of Work. But we can't resist doing some future prognosticating of our own about emergent workers and $5 a gallon gas. What is the World Congress All About?Our second World Congress on the Future of Work convenes in less than four weeks in Philadelphia. We're committed to holding one of these very special gatherings at least once a year for several reasons. First, we like to get together with our friends…. Second, we want to create the future, and the World Congress Delegates are just the folks to help us do that. World Congress NewsIt's that time of year - the World Congress is less than a month away. It's going to be a very special event, attended by very special people engaging with each other about very special ideas and insights. You owe it to yourself to sign up - it's easy, quick, and will make you feel good. And there aren't that many Delegate seats left; don't wait any longer! Feature Article: The Rise of the Emergent WorkerIt's springtime (at least in the northern hemisphere where we live and work most of the time). And just like new flowers emerging from their winter sleep, a new kind of worker is emerging from the frozen aftermath of the dot-com bust. For those of you who have been following our continuing series of articles on the coming labor shortage, lack of adequate education, and the shift from an industrial economy to a knowledge-based one, this "revelation" will come as no surprise... Book Review: The World Café, by Juanita Brown et alAs many of you know, we worked with David Isaacs last year to apply the World Café model to the first World Congress on the Future of Work in San Francisco. It was so successful that we'll be using it again next month in Philadelphia. So we weren't exactly neutral when it came to reviewing this remarkable book. It is a rich and compelling conversation about an incredibly important new process… Research NotesJournalist Adam Geller reported in a recent Associated Press story that U.S. workers, pushed to produce more and uneasy about new technology and other changes, are markedly less satisfied with their jobs than a decade ago. The Future of Work Is Already Here; It Just Isn't Evenly DistributedIn one form or another, the future of work is already here. This periodic section provides you with notes from all over the world - stories about what's happening somewhere today that provides clues to what will be happening everywhere tomorrow. In Our Humble Opinion: What Will a World of $5 Gas Be Like?We end each issue of Future of Work Agenda with a personal perspective - our chance to comment on issues and developments in the world of work that we find important and interesting. This is our "editorial" page, where we enjoy offering our opinions and predictions about what's happening (or should be happening) in the world of work. |
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From Jim and CharlieThe sun is shining today, and that makes a huge difference in the way we feel - and even though it's the beginning of April, that's no joke. We're happy to share this issue with you. It's an exciting time for us as we ramp up for the World Congress that is coming up in just a few weeks. We've been energized for some time now as the agenda comes together, as we listen to our special guests on the World Congress teleconferences (we just completed the fourth one on March 31), and as more and more really interesting folks register as Delegates. Selfishly, we can't wait for the event itself to unfold. But we're also enjoying the broadening and deepening of our wider Future of Work community as new Delegates not only register but participate actively in the teleconferences, and even, to some degree in our Future of Work Weblog and a new Future of Work Forum that we've recently launched. The Forum is an online bulletin board or threaded conversation where we want to have ongoing conversations about important questions with all members of our community. The Forum isn't even listed on our website yet, but you are welcome to take a peek and register to participate - and to contribute questions and discussion topics as well as add your comments to existing threads (be sure to bookmark the link so you can get back to it before we "go public"). Now, about the April issue. You'll see rather quickly that we've focused on the upcoming World Congress, with both a brief article about why we're holding it and what it will like, as well as a series of short news pieces about all the activities preceding and following the event itself. Our feature article this month is about a really important challenge facing all organizations over the next few years - the emergence of a new "class" of workers who bring radically different values and expectations to the workplace. Our Future of Work member and World Congress sponsor Spherion Corporation has been conducting research on emergent workers for over six years, and their most current findings suggest that the United States could be facing over $600 billion of workforce turnover costs in the next three to five years. Now that's real money! And if that doesn't have you worried enough, be sure to read our monthly rant, which focuses on the prospect of gasoline popping up to $3 and more a gallon here in the United States (and we can just hear our European friends screaming about how they'd love to have it that cheap!). Just try to imagine how your commuting patterns might change when (not if) gas gets really expensive - and what impact that will have on your newly emergent workforce - a group of folks that puts its own work/life balance issues right up there at the top of the priority list. And of course we hope you'll check out our Announcements and Research Notes too. But if you do nothing else be sure to read about the World Congress - and come be with us in Philadelphia! So, on to the rest of the newsletter. Enjoy! And please let us know what you think.
What is the World Congress All About?Our second World Congress on the Future of Work convenes in less than four weeks in Philadelphia. We're committed to holding one of these very special gatherings at least once a year for several reasons. First, we like to get together with our friends, and we know that as good as teleconferences, phone calls, emails, and even instant messaging are, that's not a sufficient way to stay connected with people who matter to us. Secondly, we are strong believers in the importance, and the power, of community. We're committed to building a global community of professionals who, like us, are dedicated to the proposition that the world of work can (and should) be a whole lot better for most people than it is today. The best way we know to make that happen is to bring together the thought leaders and active practitioners who are creating the future of work every day through their leadership, directives, and personal actions. So what we are doing with the World Congress is nurturing the formation of a "meta community" that can address the issues transcending real estate and facilities, information technology, and human resource management. We want to elevate our mutual vision and objectives to the level of transforming the way business is conducted. We've all got something to say about the future (and about the deficiencies of the present), and we need to hear each other's ideas, dreams, and frustrations. As most of you know, we create a "World Café" generate deep, interactive conversation as the primary means of communication at the World Congress (see this month's book review for an extended discussion of the World Café, check out a short article on the World Café that we published last year, and visit the World Café website itself. You won't regret it.). This conversational approach to learning gives each World Congress Delegate extensive opportunities to talk with, and listen to, other Delegates. We'll provide some leadership from the "stage" in posing the questions, telling a few of our own stories, and offering our own views, but like you we want to listen and learn from the other Delegates. How many times have you gone to one of those mega-conferences where you get to hear the so-called "guru's" who broadcast to you (and 4000 of your closest friends) from a stage so far away that you have to watch them on a big-screen TV? Ever wonder why you traveled so far, and spent so much money on hotels and restaurant food, just to watch a TV show? You know the answer as well as we do: you attended the conference to see, talk with, and learn from your peers, not the "experts." Well, the World Congress minimizes the expert broadcasts and maximizes the "talk time" when you can explore important "Big Questions" with highly experienced peers. The 2005 World Congress will include over 8 hours of "talk time" when you'll be sitting in a very comfortable Herman Miller chair at a small "café" table talking with three other folks from different companies, different professions, and different parts of the globe. As one senior executive told us after last year's event, "I've never had an experience like that before. I've got the business cards of more than fifteen new acquaintances who I know will return my phone calls. And I'd return theirs' in a nanosecond. I've got fifteen new friends who broaden my knowledge base exponentially." That's what the World Congress is really all about - making friends, learning, thinking hard about how to turn good ideas in new realities, and becoming part of an ongoing community. At the 2005 World Congress the Delegates will be working together to address "Big Questions" like:
This year's World Congress theme is Making It Real: From Vision to Action. The entire focus of all these conversations will be on moving from broad visions and concepts to specific actions you can take to make the future of work real in your own organization. Each Delegate attending the World Congress will receive a specially compiled "Implementation Toolkit" that will include the best ideas, guidelines, websites, and other resources for turning ideas into constructive action that we can find. All too often grand ideas remain nothing more than that - they stay ideas forever. We're committed to making the future of work real; we are pulling together a toolkit that includes many checklists, diagnostic tools, and other resources we use ourselves. And we know the Delegates will find it valuable as well. Finally, an important innovation at this year's World Congress will be a set of four simultaneous "Town Hall" meetings led by world-class thought leaders and practitioners. The Town Hall topics and discussion leaders are: People and Organization:Rebecca Ryan - founder of NextGeneration Consulting. Rebecca is the foremost expert in the world today on managing younger workers and building "Next Generation" Companies. Community Development: New Economy TownsBruno Bottarelli - Director, Town Builders Collaborative. Bruno will be describing an exciting new approach to completely redefining a local community's priorities and making it a true live/work neighborhood. And he's planning to have a real live Mayor with him to discuss the concept from the public sector side. Technology: Collaborative PlatformsLaurie Orlov - Forrester Research. Laurie will describe the latest in collaborative technology platforms and lead a discussion about what kinds of technologies we need to make distributed work really work. Place and Space: Working at Home and TelecommutingToni Kistner - managing editor, Net.worker and Telework Beat, Network World, and Neal Zimmerman, author of the best-selling At Work At Home and founder of Zimmerman & Associates. These two experts will lead a discussion about the latest developments in work-at-home programs and share their personal experiences. Each of these four Town Halls will use our World Café model to enable panelists and participants to engage actively and directly with each other around the "Big Questions" about the future of work in each of these important domain areas. This is your chance to explore a topic of personal interest in real depth and to hear about real-world success stories from the people who made them happen. It's time for you to register and attend this one-of-a-kind event:
World Congress NewsSpecial Announcement:Richard Lamond of Spherion Will Present New Data on Emergent Workers at the World Congress.We are very pleased to announce that Richard Lamond, Vice President of Human Resources at Spherion, will describe new perspectives on the emergent workforce in a special World Café conversation with Charlie Grantham and Jim Ware on Wednesday, April 27. Spherion, in partnership with Harris Interactive, has been collecting data on workforce values, beliefs, expectations, and lifestyles since 1997. This ongoing survey has revealed some very startling evidence that over 40% of US-based workers are so unhappy with their work situation that they are prepared to leave their current employer as soon as they feel confident that economy has truly turned around. World Congress Delegates recently participated in a private teleconference with one of Richard's colleagues at Spherion where they received an early briefing on this data, which has very major implications for all employers who are concerned about attracting and retaining quality talent. Spherion is also one of the largest employers and staffing outsourcers in the United States. The company has been a long-time corporate member of the Future of Work community and is a Silver Sponsor of the 2005 World Congress. We're delighted that Richard will be with us in Philadelphia and look forward to benefiting from his insights. And we encourage you to read the feature article in this issue, "The Rise of the Emergent Worker" (below), that was stimulated in large part by the Spherion survey. It's Not Too Late for YOU to Register for the 2005 World Congress on the Future of WorkThe 2005 World Congress will be held April 26 - 28, 2005, at the Independence Visitor Center in Philadelphia, hosted by the General Services Administration. Herman Miller, Spectrum, Spherion, and Francis Cauffman Foley Hoffman are also World Congress sponsors. Please visit the website for a detailed schedule of events, including a series of five Delegates-only teleconferences that began in mid-February. This incomparable, invitation-only executive forum will bring together more than 100 director and C-level decision-makers in the fields of human resources, IT, and operations/facilities management from the world's leading organizations, all joining together to craft a set of design principles that will enable organizations to make the vision of the future of work real in their organizations. Visit the website now and register to attend The List of Registered Delegates is Getting More Impressive Every DayThe list of Delegates to the 2005 World Congress is growing by the day. Don't miss the chance to meet and converse with these world-class thought leaders and practitioners. Here's a list of Delegates who have registered in the last two weeks:
The collective knowledge, expertise, and experience base within this group of Delegates is nothing short of staggering. You can read more about each of the Delegates and their interests at the World Congress website, as well as see the complete list of all registered Delegates at: The 2005 World Congress Includes Three Special Workshops and Two ToursThe World Congress will also include four optional pre-event workshops aimed at helping Delegates focus in on specific interests and concerns. Three workshops will be held on the morning of Tuesday, April 26, at the Sheraton Society Hill hotel in downtown Philadelphia, the official hotel of the 2005 World Congress. The three half-day workshops, which cost $195 each ($150 for registered World Congress Delegates), are as follows: Aikido, Leadership, and Conflict Resolution How to Build Social Networks Using New Communications Tools Becoming a Next Generation Company For detailed workshop descriptions and information on registering, please go to the World Congress website, at In addition, our sponsor Francis Cauffman Foley Hoffman Architects is organizing a complementary tour of a recently completed innovative office facility. Stay tuned for details, but arrange your travel to arrive before Noon on April 26 so you can participate. Finally, the GSA will host Delegates at one of their Office 2020 demonstration facilities in Philadelphia on the afternoon of April 28, following the official close of the World Congress. It's going to be a very full week!
The Feature Article: The Rise of the Emergent WorkerBy Charlie Grantham and Jim Ware Spherion Corporation, one of our Future of Work Corporate Members and a Silver Sponsor of the 2005 World Congress on the Future of Work, has been conducting empirical research on the values and expectations of the workforce since 1997. As a major supplier of part-time talent and outsourced workforce management to many global corporations, Spherion is one of the largest employers in the world. This article is stimulated by Spherion's research, but also draws on our own experience and perspectives. The messages and conclusions are, of course, our own. It's springtime (at least in the northern hemisphere where we live and work most of the time). And just like new flowers emerging from their winter sleep, a new kind of worker is emerging from the frozen aftermath of the dot-com bust. For those of you who have been following our continuing series of articles on the coming labor shortage, lack of adequate education, and the shift from an industrial economy to a knowledge-based one, this "revelation" will come as no surprise. As we've been saying for some time, the workforce in the United States is experiencing a major shift in basic attitudes about work, compensation, and the relationships between individuals and the organizations that employ them. About two years ago we began predicting that workers would soon be demanding radical changes in the implicit, or social "contracts" they formed with companies. Now we are starting to see real live data that supports that prediction. But first a little social psychology. Working backwards, people's behavior in the workplace stems largely from their attitudes towards their work, their co-workers, and their employer. If your work is boring (in your opinion), if you dislike your office mates and loathe your company; your performance (behavior) will certainly reflect those feelings. In somewhat more technical terms we would say you were not "engaged" with your work (you might say more directly that you were totally "turned off"). But take another step back; we believe your workplace attitudes actually come from a set of more fundamental beliefs you hold about the world around you, like what's important to you, and how you feel about core values like fairness, respect, and trust. And of course you are also reacting to the behaviors and beliefs of those around you, especially your manager and the messages you hear from the company that employs you. What's happened is that those fundamental beliefs started changing somewhere in the late 1990's. We don't have the space here to go into a full-blown analysis of the "why" of the changing context that led to those shifts in basic beliefs. Suffice to say that consumer beliefs have evolved away from placing trust in most social institutions, driven by a wide range of experiences and a broader knowledge of what's possible versus what they see in reality (just consider what has happened recently in organizations like Enron, Arthur Andersen, Global Crossing, WorldCom, and even a major religious organization like the Catholic Church). In the words of one noted futurist, "Clearly more people are finding the materialism of the secular worldview insufficient to deal with life." (Emmon Kelley, "Five Centuries of the Future", address to The Futures Event, held in the Scottish Parliament on December 6, 2004). It's sort of like when teenagers realize that Mom and Dad aren't all-powerful and that they won't always be there to protect them from the big, bad world. The downturn in the general economy in the late 90's brought this realization to the forefront, while the events surrounding 9/11 led many workers to question the reality of their experiences in the workplace. The simple fact is that workers at all levels and of all ages have awakened to realize that there isn't all that much security in a "job," even if that job is (or was) with a large blue chip organization like ATT (who?), Bank of America, or even IBM (as successful as IBM's turnaround has been over the last decade, there are over 100,000 former IBM'ers who didn't leave the company of their own accord). The trust is gone because the paternalistic corporation doesn't exist anymore. Even in Europe job security is a lot less secure than it used to be. There are many anecdotes and data points about this shift in workers' attitudes, but we want to focus here on Spherion Corporation's Emerging Workforce® Study (www.spherion.com). Emergent workers have a significantly different set of beliefs and attitudes about work from those held by what Spherion labels "traditional" workers. For an emergent worker loyalty comes not from tenure but from his or her perceived contribution (and from the opportunity the company provides to make that contribution). In this new world, loyalty has to be earned; it definitely is not a given. Emergent workers see job changes as positive growth experiences, not something to be embarrassed about. They accept the idea that individuals are responsible for planning, charting, and managing their own career paths. They believe deeply that advancement should based on performance, not on length of service. And job security is no longer enough to keep people committed to a job or an employer. How significant are these shifts? Spherion's research has clearly shown that an increasing percentage of the workforce - now over 50% - is emergent. And there are no discernable differences among young and old workers, between males and females, or as a function of geography. Spherion has been conducting an annual Emergent Workforce survey in collaboration with Harris Interactive since 1997. And over the years the percentage of emergent workers as compared to "traditionals" has shown marked advancement (The Emergent Workforce Study, Spherion Corporation, http://www.spherion.com):
The "migrating category" includes those who are shifting but haven't quite gotten across the attitudinal borderline. The simple fact is that what Spherion calls emergent workers is becoming the dominant profile of the American workforce. Even in 2003, the last year the survey was conducted, only 21% of workers (that's basically just one in five) were still "traditional" in their values, expectations, and personal preferences. What are the implications of this trend for employers? Simply put, emergent workers expect - no, demand - to be managed differently from traditional workers. If your organization is a traditional one, but you have a majority of emergent workers, you have a real problem on your hands. Emergent workers won't stay very long, if at all, in organizations filled with traditional management and HR practices. So if you want the kind of self-directed, highly engaged, high-performing talent that emergent workers are (and we believe you can't sustain your business without them), you need to run your business operations in a way that is consistent with their new expectations. That means much more emphasis on work/life balance, flexible work options, pay for performance, varied career paths, and managers who don't direct work so much as they mentor people. And that is a really big shift for the majority of front-line managers to make - but remember that more and more of them are emergent too; they aren't immune to the broad tectonic shifts in our society that are driving these emergent values. Let's be even more blunt. Spherion's survey also includes the startling revelation that fully 40% of employees in traditional companies say they are ready to leave as soon as they perceive a halfway-decent opportunity elsewhere. You combine that with our prediction of a coming labor shortage (see "Closing the Talent Gap" in the January 2005 issue of Future of Work Agenda, and "A Dirty Little Secret: The War for Talent is Over; and Talent Won," October 2003), and you can easily imagine entire business enterprises collapsing almost overnight. And for employees who walk out the door you can figure a replacement cost equal to about 150% of their annual salary. According to Spherion's calculations that could amount to a $600 Billion (yes, that's a "B") hit to Corporate America over the next two years! The solution? Executives in traditional companies need to realize that their most pressing challenge is to turn their companies into organizations that attract (and retain) emergent workers. Easier said than done; but we promise to discuss more about how to accomplish that goal in the future. And if you can't wait, at least go back and reread "Becoming a Next Generation Company" (Future of Work Agenda, November 2003) by our friends Rebecca Ryan and Tony DiRomualdo. For now, we simply encourage you to stress your uniqueness and differences, along with the opportunities for contribution that you provide, to the workers you already have and the ones you are trying to recruit. If you just do that, you'll have a strong competitive advantage, because, believe it or not, even those very basic tactics are still amazingly rare.
Book Review: The World Café: Shaping Our Futures Through Conversations That Matterby Juanita Brown, with David Isaacs and the World Café Community Reviewed by Jim Ware Charlie and I feel very privileged to consider Juanita Brown and her partner David Isaacs as good friends and trusted colleagues. As many of you know, we worked with David last year to apply the World Café to the first World Congress on the Future of Work in San Francisco. It was so successful that we'll be using it again next month in Philadelphia. For those of you who haven't yet experienced a World Café, we can only offer our condolences. It's unlike any other "tool" we've ever seen or used for enabling a group of individuals to become what Juanita likes to call a "collective wisdom." As we note above in our discussion of this year's World Congress, the World Café enables all participants at an event to meet, interact with, and learn from all the other participants. It is as different from a typical conference (with PowerPoint presentations and jumbotron television screens) as an intimate dinner with a lover is from a gathering of the faithful in St. Peter's Square in Rome. So we weren't exactly neutral when it came to reviewing this remarkable book. It is a rich and compelling conversation about an incredibly important new process for generating new ideas, insights, relationships, and deep personal conversations. We are true believers, and even with our past experience with World Café's we found the compilation of personal stories, guidelines, and case examples wonderfully inspirational. This is truly a remarkable book. We endorse it without reservation. No, let me go further: whether you know it or not, you need to buy this book, which will be available from Amazon.com and other booksellers on April 10 (but you can pre-order it right now). Now, let me take just a few moments to give you a flavor of what this is all about. David Isaacs is fond of saying that conversation is for people what water is for fish: we are surrounded by it, but we hardly recognize how critical it is for life and meaning. The World Café is an approach to group interaction that helps us remember what conversation really is: "the medium though which all of us together understand and create the realities we live in" (Tom Atlee, founder of the Co-Intelligence Institute, quoted in the Introduction). When you participate in a World Café you find yourself seated at a small round table with three other people, who you may or may not know. The table is covered with a large piece of butcher paper, and there is a small vase of fresh flowers in the center. You have access to several crayons or markers, and you are engaging in conversation about something that really matters - typically one or two "Big Questions." You work together for anywhere from 20 minutes to an hour, and then your Host/Hostess asks three of you to get up and move to three different tables to continue the conversation, while one remains behind to report to three new participants on the meanings behind the scribblings you've left behind on that butcher paper. It all sounds so simple - yet the total experience is incredibly profound. You discover very quickly that the whole truly is greater than the sum of the parts. There really is a collective intelligence that is far more powerful than any of our individual insights (but one important note: the collective intelligence arising out of a World Café is a whole lot more than what James Surowiecki discusses in The Wisdom of Crowds, and I fully agree with Charlie's somewhat critical review of that book in last month's newsletter). To get back to the book for a final moment, it is written as a compilation of stories and examples of events where the World Café has been used. The book actually has many voices (what could be more appropriate?), and Juanita graciously (but not surprisingly) gives ample credit to many thoughtful, caring people who have contributed to the process and operational design of the World Café over the years. And the book is a "how to do it yourself" compendium as well. The core of the book articulates and makes real the seven core design principles of a World Café:
Applied in combination, these basic design principles virtually ensure that you'll have a powerful learning and relationship-enhancing experience. Even if you never read the book, try living by these principles, and I'm willing to bet you'll find yourself having more meaningful conversations than you realized were possible. And the best part of all this is that it isn't rocket science, a foreign language, or some elite skill that requires years to master. As David Isaacs says over and over again, it's just a matter of remembering (practicing and acting on) what you've known all along. The World Café: Shaping Our Futures Through Conversations That Matter can be ordered right now from Amazon.com at this link for shipment on April 10, its official publication date.
Research NotesJob Satisfaction Declines in the US, According to New Conference Board SurveyJournalist Adam Geller reported in a recent Associated Press story that U.S. workers, pushed to produce more and uneasy about new technology and other changes, are markedly less satisfied with their jobs than a decade ago. Geller's story focuses on a recent survey conducted by the Conference Board, a New York-based business research association. Compared with a decade ago, job satisfaction has declined among all types of workers. The biggest decline in happiness was among workers earning $25,000 to $35,000 and among workers between 35 and 44. The workers most satisfied with their jobs are those earning $50,000 or more and those at least 65. The long-term drop in job satisfaction has been driven by rapid changes in technology, employers' push for productivity and shifting expectations among workers, Lynn Franco, director of the group's Consumer Research Center, told Mr. Geller. The survey, conducted for The Conference Board by market research firm TNS, is based on a representative sample of 5,000 households surveyed in July 2004. We can't help noticing that these findings are remarkably similar to those in the survey conducted in 2003 by Spherion Corporation and Harris Interactive, discussed in our feature article, The Rise of the Emergent Worker, above.
The Future of Work Is Already Here; It Just Isn't Evenly DistributedEmployee-Driven Office DesignWe're pleased to pass on this intriguing new development in the world of office design: Kimberly Blanton recently reported in the Boston Globe on a novel idea that is gaining traction among employers who want happy workers: let their employees actually design the workplaces where they toil for eight, 10, 12 hours a day. In Kimberly's own words:
Read the full story as it was reprinted in the March 25 issue of the Contra Costa Times: http://www.siliconvalley.com/mld/cctimes/business/11227493.htm (warning: we're not sure how long this link will remain active. If you can't find the story online let us know and we'll send you a document file). Special thanks to Future of Work member Yuji Shibuya of Nomura Research America for sharing the story with us. New Job Opportunities for Older WorkersThe New York Times recently carried an intriguing story about Home Depot's efforts to recruit older workers - due in no small part to the growing shortage of workers in more traditional employment age brackets. The story, "More Help Wanted: Older Workers Please Apply," appeared on March 23. Part of what makes it newsworthy is Home Depot's recognition that many older workers "migrate" back and forth between the northern and southern United States with the seasons. Thus, the company has begun offering older workers two part-time jobs - one in the north during the summer, and the other in the south during the fall and winter. We find that a highly practical, win-win solution that staffs local stores in both regions exactly when they need the help, and also accommodates the workers' personal preferences.
In Our Humble Opinion: What Will a World of $5 Gas Be Like?Commentary by Charlie Grantham and Jim Ware "In the year 2525, if man is still alive...." This month we're inspired by a simple question: What does it take to change people's work behavior? In particular, we've been thinking about commuting patterns. How far are people willing to commute on a daily basis? How much time are they willing to spend driving, riding, and waiting for buses and trains? We don't have the definitive data to answer those questions, but we do know that these days people are driving farther and farther, and putting more and more time into this ridiculous ritual every day. So just where is this masochistic behavior coming from? Driving through Northern California recently ourselves (no bubba, we weren't actually commuting, we were on our way to a client meeting), we noticed how sky-high the gasoline prices had gotten. Then we got stuck in traffic at 3:30 in the afternoon as all those cube-bound Dilberts were headed back to their home cubbies in the burbs. And, believe it or not, we passed one gas station where the price had risen over six cents in the two hours since we'd driven by earlier going the other way. We still find it hard to believe that literally 1,000's (make that millions) of people now drive two or more hours each way, everyday, to and from work. Well, we think that's absolutely nuts, and we started wondering why so many people engage in such non-rational behavior just for the sake of a paycheck. OK, OK, we know everybody needs a job (or at least some way to pay the bills). But when will we get to the point where folks say, "Wait a second, this ain't worth the hassle any more"? What if gasoline gets to $5 a gallon? Now you're probably out there saying, "These guys are the nutty ones. I'm old enough to remember the late 70's oil crisis." Well, do you remember that weird time? Once upon a time most of us thought gas would never hit a buck a gallon; the government would never let that happen, no sirree. Well, looky here, it's 25 years later and now anything under $2 a gallon is a real deal. And do you know how much people pay for gas in Europe? We checked it out (virtually of course; we couldn't afford to go way over there just to do real empirical research). It's something like three times what we in the good ol' US-of-A pay these days. So if we are paying $2 a gallon now, they're coughing something over $6 a gallon. Now, when we hit $3, they'll be somewhere around $9.00 (of course a lot of that is taxes, but that's still a real cost of turning on the engine). And our hypothetical projection of $5.00 a gallon may even be a tad bit conservative. Do the math. If you drive 100 miles to work (yes, Virginia people do that!), that's 200 miles a day, five days a week, or over 4000 miles a month. Following us so far? Now if you drive one of those big butt SUV's - which, in our observation, a lot of folks do, you get let's say 15 miles to a gallon of go juice. So you burn close to 266 gallons a month. At $2.00 a gallon your bill is over $500 bucks a month. Double that and you are forking over $1000 a month! There goes your 401K retirement plan!. Will doubling or even tripling your price of commuting change your attitude about your job? We're betting it just might. Now, that SUV getting 15 miles a gallon and going 200 miles a day might seem a bit extreme, but it's all relative folks - the same multiplier applies to everyone. A rational person can do a few things. Take public transportation. Right! That dog won't hunt for most of us. Most of those who can take the train or bus are already doing it. Ok, how about getting your employer to pay for your commute? Hello, can you just see Dilbert asking Catbert for a few extra grand a year because gas has gone up? Don't think so. In the United States, at least, getting to work is the responsibility of the worker. And with the price of housing in major metro areas, you have to go 100 miles or more away to find a decent house you can afford. But in this "you're on your own" society that's your problem, bubba. So what's next on the option list? Well, how about bringing the work to you? Yep, you heard it here first. When the cost of commuting goes up by a factor of three, we think people will start saying "It just ain't worth it." Voila! Another major driver towards distributed work. Just ask yourself this: If it cost me three times as much to get to work, would I start looking for other employment options? While we are on a roll here let's trace this logic out a notch or two further. As long as the direct cost of work transportation is relatively low most of us put up with it. Pop in another CD, get on the cell phone, whatever. But what about all those hours you spend in the SUV crawling along the freeway? What's four hours a day worth to you? If you put just half that time back into work you'd get a 25% increase in billable time (that's consultant speak for making the big bucks). So let's see here. I could maybe make 25% more and cut my costs by a couple hundred bucks a month? Please help me understand why I'm sitting in this car. Every once in a while an issue comes along that just breaks the back of the camel (no energy pun intended here). We think a tripling of energy prices in the United States over the next 3-5 years could just be the kind of event that flips people over the edge and drives them towards a whole new view of work: "Bring the work to me 'cause I ain't going to go that far from home just to get it." If you are an employer, now's the time to start thinking about remote and satellite offices, or going gung-ho after setting up distributed work programs. Alvin Toffler commented over 30 years ago that the single most unproductive aspect of our economy is putting millions of people into big, heavy automobiles every morning, moving them to workplaces, and then moving them back home every evening. Maybe the combination of technology and energy costs is finally waking up the rest of us. Bring the work to me; it's one whole heck of a lot cheaper and far less time-consuming. And I can live in a really nice place of my own choosing to boot. Please direct your comments to comments@thefutureofwork.net. We'd love to publish your reactions and suggestions. And thanks for listening.
This issue of Future of Work Agenda was produced by Jim Ware and Charlie Grantham of the Work Design Collaborative. We encourage your comments, suggestions, and submission of materials for possible future publication. Please contact us at: Charlie Grantham, charlie@thefutureofwork.net, +1 928 771 9138 To subscribe to Future of Work Agenda, register on our web site. Please pass this newsletter on to other interested individuals and encourage them to subscribe as well. The newsletter is free, and will remain free as long as possible. To end your subscription, send a message to newsletter@thefutureofwork.net and write Unsubscribe in the Subject line. For republication rights, contact Jim Ware at jim@thefutureofwork.net.
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